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conflict:heat-pump-costs-less-run-heating

Heat Pump vs Oil, Propane and Baseboard Heat

Every factual sentence carries assertions checked against the recorded evidence: references must resolve, figures and quotations must be in the cited passage, arithmetic must reproduce, and an independent reviewer must approve the wording. Automated validation says whether the narration is ready for human editorial review; it does not establish truth.

Validation
passed (revision 5)
Runtime
603 words, about 4.2 min at 150 wpm
Assertions
17 of 17 verified
Issues
0 blocking, 0 warnings
Storyboard
22 scenes, 4:17 (ok)
Model
claude-opus-5-5

Open a sentence to see its assertions, their status and the passages behind them. Sentences without a marker make no factual claim.

Hook

If your house runs on propane, heating oil or electric baseboards, someone has probably told you a heat pump is the easy win. But does a heat pump always beat each of them on running cost, or does one of them break the rule?

Setup

The home-energy marketplace EnergySage puts it flatly: "Heat pumps consistently save against propane, oil, and electric resistance heating almost everywhere." s03 verified

verified s03.a EnergySage wrote that heat pumps consistently save against propane, oil and electric resistance heating almost everywhere.

supported (approved): no direct support, 4 qualifying, 1 source statement.

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • statement Does a Heat Pump Actually Save Money? Heat pumps consistently save against propane, oil, and electric resistance heating almost everywhere.
Abode Energy Management, in a video on heat pump economics in Massachusetts, says home heating oil is "always also going to be more expensive than a heat pump". s04 verified

verified s04.a Abode Energy Management said home heating oil is always going to be more expensive than a heat pump.

supported (approved): no direct support, 4 qualifying, 1 source statement.

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • statement Heat Pump Economics in Massachusetts home heating oil we would see that it's always also going to be more expensive than a heat pump
Yet The Boston Globe reported that in a winter of cheaper oil, even Massachusetts homeowners switching from oil "could see their energy costs increase by a few hundred dollars over the cold season". s05 verified

verified s05.a The Boston Globe reported that with oil cheaper that year, even Massachusetts homeowners switching from oil could see energy costs rise by a few hundred dollars over the cold season.

supported (approved): no direct support, 3 contradicting, 4 qualifying, 1 source statement.

info wording: Wording differs from the canonical claim; the reviewer confirms the passages entail it.

  • statement Heat pumps are efficient and better for the climate. But with sky-high electric rates, will Mass. consumers buy in? - The Boston Globe even homeowners switching from that source could see their energy costs increase by a few hundred dollars over the cold season

Investigation

So who is right? Start with the widest view.
A national study estimated that among homes heating mainly with electricity, fuel oil or propane that already have air conditioning, 95 to 100 percent would see lower bills with a heat pump, depending on its efficiency. s07 verified

verified s07.a For homes heating primarily with electricity, fuel oil or propane and with central or room AC, the study found 95% to 100% nationally would have positive bill savings, depending on heat pump efficiency.

qualified (qualify): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.65), 4 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: CEE 2018, ducted and ductless cold-climate heat pumps in the field: Measured cost savings averaged 33% against propane furnaces and 53% against electric resistance in Minnesota homes; oil was not tested, so the claim is supported for two of its three fuels. Cadmus 2016, ductless mini-split evaluation (MA and RI): Mini-splits were cheaper to run than electric resistance and propane at all observed …

  • supports Wilson 2024 (NREL and LBNL), heat pumps for all? right 65%, direct Wilson 2024 (NREL and LBNL), heat pumps for all?, lines 393-L401Two of the housing stock characteristics with the largest impact on the energy bill OPEN ACCESS savings variation seen in Figure 4 are primary heating fuel type and presence of AC equipment. These effects are illustrated in Figure S4, which…
The median saving it estimated was $300 to $650 a year. s08 verified

verified s08.a For those homes the median bill saving was $300 to $650 per year, depending on efficiency.

qualified (qualify): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.65), 4 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: CEE 2018, ducted and ductless cold-climate heat pumps in the field: Measured cost savings averaged 33% against propane furnaces and 53% against electric resistance in Minnesota homes; oil was not tested, so the claim is supported for two of its three fuels. Cadmus 2016, ductless mini-split evaluation (MA and RI): Mini-splits were cheaper to run than electric resistance and propane at all observed …

  • supports Wilson 2024 (NREL and LBNL), heat pumps for all? right 65%, direct Wilson 2024 (NREL and LBNL), heat pumps for all?, lines 393-L401Two of the housing stock characteristics with the largest impact on the energy bill OPEN ACCESS savings variation seen in Figure 4 are primary heating fuel type and presence of AC equipment. These effects are illustrated in Figure S4, which…
Homes on those fuels without air conditioning did worse: only 73 to 86 percent would come out ahead, and most of the homes whose bills went up were in hotter climates, where the new cooling cost more than the heating saved. s09 verified

verified s09.a Only 73% to 86% of the homes heating with those fuels but without central or room AC would have positive bill savings.

qualified (qualify): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.65), 4 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: CEE 2018, ducted and ductless cold-climate heat pumps in the field: Measured cost savings averaged 33% against propane furnaces and 53% against electric resistance in Minnesota homes; oil was not tested, so the claim is supported for two of its three fuels. Cadmus 2016, ductless mini-split evaluation (MA and RI): Mini-splits were cheaper to run than electric resistance and propane at all observed …

  • supports Wilson 2024 (NREL and LBNL), heat pumps for all? right 65%, direct Wilson 2024 (NREL and LBNL), heat pumps for all?, lines 393-L401Two of the housing stock characteristics with the largest impact on the energy bill OPEN ACCESS savings variation seen in Figure 4 are primary heating fuel type and presence of AC equipment. These effects are illustrated in Figure S4, which…

verified s09.b Most of the homes with increased energy bills are those in hotter climates but without existing central or window AC, where increased cooling costs outweigh heating cost savings.

qualified (qualify): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.6), 2 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: Deetjen 2021, private economics of US residential heat pumps: Counting capital cost, resistance and propane homes usually gain, but oil-heated homes usually take a private loss (65% are in cold climates), so oil is not among the best cases. Bernard 2024 (NBER), UK heat pumps and a time-of-use tariff: UK households that previously used electric heating saw electricity use fall after a heat pump, wh…

  • supports Wilson 2024 (NREL and LBNL), heat pumps for all? right 60%, direct Wilson 2024 (NREL and LBNL), heat pumps for all?, lines 393-L414Two of the housing stock characteristics with the largest impact on the energy bill OPEN ACCESS savings variation seen in Figure 4 are primary heating fuel type and presence of AC equipment. These effects are illustrated in Figure S4, which…
For comparison, among gas-heated homes with air conditioning, the same study put the median anywhere from a $70 loss to a $380 saving, depending on the heat pump. s10 verified

verified s10.a For homes heating with natural gas and with AC, median bill savings ranged from -$70 to $380 per year depending on heat pump performance level.

qualified (qualify): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.6), 2 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: Deetjen 2021, private economics of US residential heat pumps: Counting capital cost, resistance and propane homes usually gain, but oil-heated homes usually take a private loss (65% are in cold climates), so oil is not among the best cases. Bernard 2024 (NBER), UK heat pumps and a time-of-use tariff: UK households that previously used electric heating saw electricity use fall after a heat pump, wh…

  • supports Wilson 2024 (NREL and LBNL), heat pumps for all? right 60%, direct Wilson 2024 (NREL and LBNL), heat pumps for all?, lines 393-L414Two of the housing stock characteristics with the largest impact on the energy bill OPEN ACCESS savings variation seen in Figure 4 are primary heating fuel type and presence of AC equipment. These effects are illustrated in Figure S4, which…
That was an estimate. What about heat pumps running in real homes?
A study of cold-climate heat pumps found the all-electric systems cut heating costs by 53 percent on average, measured against what electric resistance heaters would have used for the same heat. s12 verified

verified s12.a For all-electric cold-climate heat pump systems, with an electric resistance heater assumed to meet the same load in the baseline, average cost savings were 53%.

qualified (qualify): no direct support, 4 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: CEE 2018, ducted and ductless cold-climate heat pumps in the field: Measured cost savings averaged 33% against propane furnaces and 53% against electric resistance in Minnesota homes; oil was not tested, so the claim is supported for two of its three fuels. "all" is stronger than the evidence (strongest support 0). Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement.

  • qualifies CEE 2018, ducted and ductless cold-climate heat pumps in the field partly 55%, direct CEE 2018, ducted and ductless cold-climate heat pumps in the field, lines 376-L382For the ductless systems and all electric ducted systems, it was assumed that the load met by the heat pump system would have also been met by an electric resistance heater in the baseline case. These systems saw a 46% to 56% reduction in e…
An evaluation of ductless mini-split heat pumps found them more cost-effective than electric resistance and propane heat at every energy price and every outdoor temperature it examined. s13 verified

verified s13.a Compared against electrical resistance and propane heating, ductless mini-split heat pumps proved more cost-effective for all energy prices and all outdoor air temperatures.

qualified (qualify): no direct support, 4 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: Cadmus 2016, ductless mini-split evaluation (MA and RI): Mini-splits were cheaper to run than electric resistance and propane at all observed temperatures, but against oil they were cheaper only above a price-dependent break-even (about 32 F in 2016, 12 F in 2015). "all" is stronger than the evidence (strongest support 0). Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement…

  • qualifies Cadmus 2016, ductless mini-split evaluation (MA and RI) partly 55%, direct Cadmus 2016, ductless mini-split evaluation (MA and RI), lines 3611-L3619The cost-effectiveness of DMSHPs used for heating depends on alternative heating systems, energy prices for a given period, and outside air temperatures. Compared against electrical resistance and propane heating, DMSHPs proved more cost-ef…
Oil was different: there, the relative price of oil decided the outdoor temperature above which the heat pump won. s14 verified

verified s14.a For oil-fired systems, the relative energy price determined the temperature above which a mini-split became more cost-effective.

qualified (qualify): no direct support, 4 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: Cadmus 2016, ductless mini-split evaluation (MA and RI): Mini-splits were cheaper to run than electric resistance and propane at all observed temperatures, but against oil they were cheaper only above a price-dependent break-even (about 32 F in 2016, 12 F in 2015). Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement.

  • qualifies Cadmus 2016, ductless mini-split evaluation (MA and RI) partly 55%, direct Cadmus 2016, ductless mini-split evaluation (MA and RI), lines 3611-L3619The cost-effectiveness of DMSHPs used for heating depends on alternative heating systems, energy prices for a given period, and outside air temperatures. Compared against electrical resistance and propane heating, DMSHPs proved more cost-ef…
So the evaluators advised oil-heated homes to switch the heat pump off when it got very cold, when the oil system would run cheaper: below 8 degrees Fahrenheit in one year, and below 25 degrees the next, depending on that year's energy prices. s15 verified

verified s15.a The evaluators recommended that oil-heated homeowners turn off the mini-split in very cold conditions, below 8F in 2015 and below 25F in 2016, when an oil-fired system would operate less expensively, depending on energy prices.

qualified (qualify): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.45), 2 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: Deetjen 2021, private economics of US residential heat pumps: Counting capital cost, resistance and propane homes usually gain, but oil-heated homes usually take a private loss (65% are in cold climates), so oil is not among the best cases. Bernard 2024 (NBER), UK heat pumps and a time-of-use tariff: UK households that previously used electric heating saw electricity use fall after a heat pump, wh…

  • supports Cadmus 2016, ductless mini-split evaluation (MA and RI) right 45%, direct Cadmus 2016, ductless mini-split evaluation (MA and RI), lines 1184-L1205Recommendation: The evaluation team recommends exploring methods for targeting homes with electric resistance heating for DMSHP retrofits. DMSHPs will nearly always be less expensive to operate than electric resistance heat, as shown by the…
And another study found that in regions where homes heat with electricity or fuels other than gas, heating is generally more expensive and the net benefits of a heat pump are higher, though climate and energy prices also play an important role. s22 verified

verified s22.a In regions where the heating source is electricity or fuels other than natural gas, heating is generally more expensive and the net benefits of heat pumps are higher; climate and energy prices also play an important role.

qualified (qualify): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.55), 2 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: Deetjen 2021, private economics of US residential heat pumps: Counting capital cost, resistance and propane homes usually gain, but oil-heated homes usually take a private loss (65% are in cold climates), so oil is not among the best cases. Bernard 2024 (NBER), UK heat pumps and a time-of-use tariff: UK households that previously used electric heating saw electricity use fall after a heat pump, wh…

  • supports Edwards 2024, inequities in heat pump bill savings right 55%, direct Edwards 2024, inequities in heat pump bill savings, lines 296-L299cycle11,13 (including installation) costs. Primary heating fuel is a key driver of benefits: in regions where the heating source is electricity or fuels other than natural gas, heating is generally more expensive and thus the net benefits o…
Real projects show the same split: across 273 home electrification projects with cost data, some raised annual energy costs, in some cases by as much as $1,000 a year, while the big reductions were most likely in homes with high bills beforehand, such as those heating with propane or fuel oil. s23 verified

verified s23.a Among 273 electrification projects with cost savings data, some increased post-retrofit energy costs, by as much as $1,000 per year in some cases, while high reductions in annual energy cost were most likely in homes with high pre-retrofit bills, such as those heating with propane or fuel oil.

qualified (qualify): 1 supporting (1 independent, strongest 0.4), 2 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: Deetjen 2021, private economics of US residential heat pumps: Counting capital cost, resistance and propane homes usually gain, but oil-heated homes usually take a private loss (65% are in cold climates), so oil is not among the best cases. Bernard 2024 (NBER), UK heat pumps and a time-of-use tariff: UK households that previously used electric heating saw electricity use fall after a heat pump, wh…

  • supports Less 2021 (LBNL), cost of decarbonization retrofits right 40%, direct Less 2021 (LBNL), cost of decarbonization retrofits, lines 2700-L2706In Figure 40 we compare the distribution of energy cost savings for the 273 Electrification projects with cost savings data, against the savings for all other retrofit types. The tendency for Electrification projects to increase post-retrof…

Answer

So does a heat pump always win?
Against propane and electric resistance heat, this evidence says it nearly always does on running cost. s25 verified

verified s25.a Against propane and electric resistance heating, ductless mini-splits proved more cost-effective at all energy prices and outdoor temperatures, and the all-electric cold-climate systems saved 53% on average against an electric resistance baseline.

qualified (qualify): no direct support, 4 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: Cadmus 2016, ductless mini-split evaluation (MA and RI): Mini-splits were cheaper to run than electric resistance and propane at all observed temperatures, but against oil they were cheaper only above a price-dependent break-even (about 32 F in 2016, 12 F in 2015). CEE 2018, ducted and ductless cold-climate heat pumps in the field: Measured cost savings averaged 33% against propane furnaces and 53…

  • qualifies Cadmus 2016, ductless mini-split evaluation (MA and RI) partly 55%, direct Cadmus 2016, ductless mini-split evaluation (MA and RI), lines 3611-L3619The cost-effectiveness of DMSHPs used for heating depends on alternative heating systems, energy prices for a given period, and outside air temperatures. Compared against electrical resistance and propane heating, DMSHPs proved more cost-ef…
  • qualifies CEE 2018, ducted and ductless cold-climate heat pumps in the field partly 55%, direct CEE 2018, ducted and ductless cold-climate heat pumps in the field, lines 376-L382For the ductless systems and all electric ducted systems, it was assumed that the load met by the heat pump system would have also been met by an electric resistance heater in the baseline case. These systems saw a 46% to 56% reduction in e…
Against oil, not always: whether it wins depends on the price of oil and how cold it gets. s26 verified

verified s26.a For oil-fired systems, the relative energy price determines the temperature above which a mini-split is more cost-effective.

qualified (qualify): no direct support, 4 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: Cadmus 2016, ductless mini-split evaluation (MA and RI): Mini-splits were cheaper to run than electric resistance and propane at all observed temperatures, but against oil they were cheaper only above a price-dependent break-even (about 32 F in 2016, 12 F in 2015). Add the qualification: the evidence supports a narrower or weaker statement.

  • qualifies Cadmus 2016, ductless mini-split evaluation (MA and RI) partly 55%, direct Cadmus 2016, ductless mini-split evaluation (MA and RI), lines 3611-L3619The cost-effectiveness of DMSHPs used for heating depends on alternative heating systems, energy prices for a given period, and outside air temperatures. Compared against electrical resistance and propane heating, DMSHPs proved more cost-ef…
What none of this can do is price your own house: the results moved with air conditioning, climate and energy prices. s27 verified

verified s27.a Fewer oil, propane and electric homes had positive bill savings without AC, and climate and energy prices play an important role in heat pump net benefits.

qualified (qualify): 2 supporting (2 independent, strongest 0.65), 6 qualifying.

warning needs-qualification: CEE 2018, ducted and ductless cold-climate heat pumps in the field: Measured cost savings averaged 33% against propane furnaces and 53% against electric resistance in Minnesota homes; oil was not tested, so the claim is supported for two of its three fuels. Cadmus 2016, ductless mini-split evaluation (MA and RI): Mini-splits were cheaper to run than electric resistance and propane at all observed …

  • supports Wilson 2024 (NREL and LBNL), heat pumps for all? right 65%, direct Wilson 2024 (NREL and LBNL), heat pumps for all?, lines 393-L401Two of the housing stock characteristics with the largest impact on the energy bill OPEN ACCESS savings variation seen in Figure 4 are primary heating fuel type and presence of AC equipment. These effects are illustrated in Figure S4, which…
  • supports Edwards 2024, inequities in heat pump bill savings right 55%, direct Edwards 2024, inequities in heat pump bill savings, lines 296-L299cycle11,13 (including installation) costs. Primary heating fuel is a key driver of benefits: in regions where the heating source is electricity or fuels other than natural gas, heating is generally more expensive and thus the net benefits o…

Takeaway

If you heat with propane or baseboards, get installed quotes and set them against what you spend on fuel each winter. If you heat with oil, ask a different question: at this winter's oil and electricity prices, below what outdoor temperature does your old system run cheaper, and will you keep it for those days? Check your fuel and your rates before you check the brochure.

22 scenes, 4:17 at 150 words per minute including pauses. Narration is copied from the script; every chart value and on-screen citation is checked against a passage.

1. sc01 · 0:00 to 0:09 typography

If your house runs on propane, heating oil or electric baseboards, someone has probably told you a heat pump is the easy win.

Visual. Warm field; "Propane, oil, baseboards" settles in large type, each word lighting as it is spoken.

On screen. Propane, oil, baseboards

2. sc02 · 0:09 to 0:19 typography

But does a heat pump always beat each of them on running cost, or does one of them break the rule?

Visual. The question types on, centred; "always" turns amber as it is spoken.

On screen. Does a heat pump always beat each of them?

3. sc03 · 0:19 to 0:27 typography

The home-energy marketplace EnergySage puts it flatly: "Heat pumps consistently save against propane, oil, and electric resistance heating almost everywhere."

Visual. Quote card, text only; "almost everywhere" turns green as it is spoken.

On screen. "Heat pumps consistently save against propane, oil, and electric resistance heating almost everywhere."

Cite. EnergySage, heat pump savings page

4. sc04 · 0:27 to 0:38 typography

Abode Energy Management, in a video on heat pump economics in Massachusetts, says home heating oil is "always also going to be more expensive than a heat pump".

Visual. Quote card, text only, mirrored from the previous one; "always" turns green as it is spoken.

On screen. "always also going to be more expensive than a heat pump"

Cite. Abode Energy Management, YouTube

5. sc05 · 0:38 to 0:52 typography

Yet The Boston Globe reported that in a winter of cheaper oil, even Massachusetts homeowners switching from oil "could see their energy costs increase by a few hundred dollars over the cold season".

Visual. Quote card, text only; "increase by a few hundred dollars" turns red as it is spoken.

On screen. "could see their energy costs increase by a few hundred dollars over the cold season"

Cite. The Boston Globe

6. sc06 · 0:52 to 0:56 typography

So who is right? Start with the widest view.

Visual. "The widest view" in large type, the camera pulling back as it lands.

On screen. The widest view

7. sc07 · 0:56 to 1:18 data-chart

A national study estimated that among homes heating mainly with electricity, fuel oil or propane that already have air conditioning, 95 to 100 percent would see lower bills with a heat pump, depending on its efficiency. The median saving it estimated was $300 to $650 a year.

Visual. Two tiles: share of homes with lower bills on s07, median yearly saving on s08.

Would see lower bills95%–100%95percentWilson 2024 (NREL and LBNL), heat pumps for all?, lines 393-L401
Median saving per year$300–$650300usdWilson 2024 (NREL and LBNL), heat pumps for all?, lines 393-L401

Cite. Wilson et al. 2024, Joule (NREL, LBNL)

8. sc08 · 1:18 to 1:35 data-chart

Homes on those fuels without air conditioning did worse: only 73 to 86 percent would come out ahead, and most of the homes whose bills went up were in hotter climates, where the new cooling cost more than the heating saved.

Visual. One tile, amber against the previous green: the share with lower bills drops.

Would see lower bills73%–86%73percentWilson 2024 (NREL and LBNL), heat pumps for all?, lines 393-L401

Cite. Wilson et al. 2024, Joule (NREL, LBNL)

9. sc09 · 1:35 to 1:49 data-chart

For comparison, among gas-heated homes with air conditioning, the same study put the median anywhere from a $70 loss to a $380 saving, depending on the heat pump.

Visual. Two tiles: the median loss in red, the median saving in green.

Least efficient heat pump: loss$7070usdWilson 2024 (NREL and LBNL), heat pumps for all?, lines 393-L414
Most efficient heat pump: saving$380380usdWilson 2024 (NREL and LBNL), heat pumps for all?, lines 393-L414

Cite. Wilson et al. 2024, Joule (NREL, LBNL)

10. sc10 · 1:49 to 1:54 typography

That was an estimate. What about heat pumps running in real homes?

Visual. The question types on; "real homes" lights as it is spoken.

On screen. What about heat pumps running in real homes?

11. sc11 · 1:54 to 2:07 data-chart

A study of cold-climate heat pumps found the all-electric systems cut heating costs by 53 percent on average, measured against what electric resistance heaters would have used for the same heat.

Visual. One large tile, 53%, counting up as the figure is spoken.

Average heating cost cut vs electric resistance53%53percentCEE 2018, ducted and ductless cold-climate heat pumps in the field, lines 376-L382

Cite. CEE 2018, cold-climate heat pump field study

12. sc12 · 2:07 to 2:18 document-excerpt

An evaluation of ductless mini-split heat pumps found them more cost-effective than electric resistance and propane heat at every energy price and every outdoor temperature it examined.

Visual. The evaluation's paragraph; the highlight sweeps across the mini-split result as it is spoken.

Cite. Cadmus 2016, ductless mini-split evaluation (MA, RI)

13. sc13 · 2:18 to 2:25 document-excerpt

Oil was different: there, the relative price of oil decided the outdoor temperature above which the heat pump won.

Visual. Same paragraph; the highlight moves down to the oil sentence, in amber.

Cite. Cadmus 2016, ductless mini-split evaluation (MA, RI)

14. sc14 · 2:25 to 2:44 typography

So the evaluators advised oil-heated homes to switch the heat pump off when it got very cold, when the oil system would run cheaper: below 8 degrees Fahrenheit in one year, and below 25 degrees the next, depending on that year's energy prices.

Visual. Two lines build: "Below 8°F in 2015" then "Below 25°F in 2016", each as its figure is spoken, in icy blue.

On screen. Below 8°F in 2015 / Below 25°F in 2016

Cite. Cadmus 2016, recommendations for oil-heated homes

15. sc15 · 2:44 to 3:01 document-excerpt

And another study found that in regions where homes heat with electricity or fuels other than gas, heating is generally more expensive and the net benefits of a heat pump are higher, though climate and energy prices also play an important role.

Visual. The study's paragraph; the highlight marks the net-benefit clause, then the caveat line lights faintly.

Cite. Edwards et al. 2024, heat pump bill savings

16. sc16 · 3:01 to 3:23 data-chart

Real projects show the same split: across 273 home electrification projects with cost data, some raised annual energy costs, in some cases by as much as $1,000 a year, while the big reductions were most likely in homes with high bills beforehand, such as those heating with propane or fuel oil.

Visual. Two tiles: the number of projects, then the largest yearly cost increase, in red.

Projects273273countLess 2021 (LBNL), cost of decarbonization retrofits, lines 2700-L2706
Largest cost increase per year$1,000lte 1000usdLess 2021 (LBNL), cost of decarbonization retrofits, lines 2700-L2706

Cite. Less et al. 2021, LBNL retrofit costs

17. sc17 · 3:23 to 3:27 typography

So does a heat pump always win?

Visual. The question types on again, as in the opening.

On screen. So does a heat pump always win?

18. sc18 · 3:27 to 3:41 typography

Against propane and electric resistance heat, this evidence says it nearly always does on running cost. Against oil, not always: whether it wins depends on the price of oil and how cold it gets.

Visual. Two lines build one per sentence: the propane and resistance line in green, the oil line in amber.

On screen. Propane and electric resistance: nearly always / Oil: depends on the price and the cold

Cite. Cadmus 2016; CEE 2018

19. sc19 · 3:41 to 3:50 typography

What none of this can do is price your own house: the results moved with air conditioning, climate and energy prices.

Visual. Three words stack as they are spoken: air conditioning, climate, energy prices.

On screen. Air conditioning / Climate / Energy prices

Cite. Wilson et al. 2024; Edwards et al. 2024

20. sc20 · 3:50 to 3:58 typography

If you heat with propane or baseboards, get installed quotes and set them against what you spend on fuel each winter.

Visual. "Get installed quotes" in large type.

On screen. Get installed quotes

21. sc21 · 3:58 to 4:12 typography

If you heat with oil, ask a different question: at this winter's oil and electricity prices, below what outdoor temperature does your old system run cheaper, and will you keep it for those days?

Visual. The question types on; "outdoor temperature" in icy blue.

On screen. Below what outdoor temperature does your old system run cheaper?

22. sc22 · 4:12 to 4:17 typography

Check your fuel and your rates before you check the brochure.

Visual. "Check your fuel and your rates" settles in large type; fade out.

On screen. Check your fuel and your rates